Collecting Art in 2025: What We've Seen So Far

Global Overview: Recalibration and Realignment

Following the initial post-pandemic rebound through 2022, the global art market has entered a period of recalibration. Last year sales fell by 12% to an estimated USD $57.5 billion, marking the second consecutive year of contraction. High-end auction results softened, trophy sales thinned out, and political and economic uncertainty weighed heavily on collector confidence. Across major hubs including the United States, China, and the United Kingdom, transaction volumes declined, with the sharpest falls seen at the highest price points.

While public auction sales struggled, private sales at major houses continued to grow. This shift reflects a broader trend: in periods of volatility, collectors often prefer the discretion, flexibility, and negotiated certainty of private transactions over public auctions. Sotheby’s continued its evolution towards private sales, experiential luxury, and broader lifestyle offerings, including high-profile expansions into fashion, jewellery, and collectible sneakers. This strategy underscores the market’s pivot toward a more holistic collector experience, where visibility and association with luxury culture have become as important as ownership itself. Buyers of these luxury brands increasingly seek to be seen; acquiring art and high-end goods is part of an immersive lifestyle performance rather than a purely private transaction.

Despite these adjustments, the broader slowdown of the economy serves as a timely reminder that art markets move in cycles. The attempted sale of the Frieze art fair group, reportedly seeking an estimated USD $80 million, has further highlighted questions around the sustainability of traditional event-driven models in a recalibrating environment. In parallel, ongoing political uncertainty, including the potential for new tariffs and trade restrictions in key markets such as the United States, has introduced additional risk. Protectionist policies could have a dampening effect on cross-border transactions, potentially slowing market liquidity and undermining international confidence.

Yet even amid turbulence, the long-term investment fundamentals for fine art remain compelling. Art has historically offered diversification during periods of broader economic stress. It is also a tangible asset, combining cultural, emotional, and financial value in a way few other asset classes can replicate. The ongoing global transfer of wealth, estimated to exceed USD $84 trillion over the next two decades, continues to feed demand for alternative investments such as fine art, particularly among high-net-worth individuals seeking both stability and cultural prestige.

One of the most profound shifts in the current market is generational. Younger collectors are not simply following the established taste hierarchies of the late twentieth century. Where once owning a Picasso, a Warhol, or a Basquiat was seen as the ultimate benchmark of success, today's emerging collectors are more interested in discovering artists of their own era. Many are seeking works that engage directly with contemporary issues such as identity, technology, and environmental concerns.

Experience driven engagement is becoming central to the collecting journey, with exhibitions, auctions, and art fairs increasingly structured as social, immersive events. As Georgina Adam noted during a recent episode of The Week in Art podcast, "fun" has become a vital currency, influencing not just what is bought, but how and where it is acquired. Younger buyers want not just possession, but participation. This transition is reshaping the market and expanding the definition of what it means to build a meaningful and important collection.

A notable example of this shift is the growing presence of crypto-affluent buyers such as blockchain billionaire Justin Sun, who made global headlines in late 2024 after purchasing Maurizio Cattelan’s Comedian, the infamous banana duct-taped to a wall for USD $6.2 million at Sotheby’s. Days later, Sun staged a press conference in Hong Kong where he peeled and ate the banana in front of reporters. While this spectacle captured attention worldwide, it remains too early to judge whether such moments represent a durable expansion of art’s cultural relevance among emerging collectors, or whether they reflect a more transient appetite for novelty, performance, and social media virality.

These global signals provide important context for regional markets, where resilience is emerging in specific sectors; notably, in Australia.

Australia 2025: Strength at the Top End

In contrast to some international softness, the Australian art market delivered two standout results in April that demonstrate resilience and continued appetite for high quality works.

On 8 April, Smith & Singer’s Important Australian Art sale achieved a hammer total of A$8.7 million, with 75% of lots sold and 96% of the total low estimate realised. Top results included Arthur Boyd’s Bride in Hibiscus Bush (A$1.45 million) and John Russell’s Vue de la Seine, Bougival (A$1.2 million), confirming sustained demand for blue chip Australian names.

The following night, Menzies’ Important Australian & International Art auction posted a further A$5.8 million at hammer, achieving 124% of the low estimate and an 82% clearance rate. Highlights included Brett Whiteley’s Untitled Red Painting III (A$950,000) and Emily Kame Kngwarreye’s Awelye (My Story), which rose to A$480,000; four times its high end estimate.

Together, the two sales generated more than A$14 million in hammer value and offered a strong counterpoint to broader softness in the market, reaffirming that quality, rarity, and provenance continue to drive competitive bidding at the top end.

In the context of Australia, Indigenous art holds unique significance. It represents one of the country's most profound contributions to global culture and continues to draw increasing international attention. Highly prized for its authenticity, sophistication, and deep connection to Country, Indigenous Australian art is now collected by major institutions across Europe, North America, and Asia.

Notably, influential international dealers such as Larry Gagosian have helped to refocus attention on the depth and significance of Australian Indigenous art. In several instances, Indigenous works have achieved far greater results in overseas auctions than they have domestically within Australia, highlighting a growing recognition of their universal cultural value. This global repositioning is reshaping the market, offering both financial and cultural opportunities for forward-thinking collectors. No longer viewed simply as regional artefacts, Indigenous works now stand as vital contemporary statements with international relevance.

Liquidity, Discipline, and the Road Ahead

Investors must approach art ownership with realism. Fine art remains fundamentally illiquid. It can be slow to sell, expensive to transact, and highly dependent on sentiment and timing. Unlike equities or real estate, there is no easy path to exit; a buyer today might find there is simply no buyer tomorrow. Those who enter the market without a genuine love for what they own risk becoming lifelong custodians. It is not just possible to die still owning the art intended as an investment... it happens more often than many realise.

Recent auction trends reinforce this caution. Internationally while top tier trophy sales have thinned out, activity in the lower segment of the market, particularly artworks priced around USD $50,000 and below have remained buoyant. This price bracket continues to attract a new wave of collectors, especially from Generation Z and younger millennial cohorts. These buyers are motivated by a complex blend of aesthetic appreciation, cultural resonance, social engagement, and a desire to participate meaningfully in contemporary dialogues, rather than by purely financial considerations.

Conclusion

While the global art market navigates shifting patterns in value, sentiment, and buyer behaviour, the strength of recent Australian sales illustrates that demand remains robust where works are exceptional. Both internationally and domestically, the market is rewarding patience, discernment, and a willingness to look beyond trend toward substance. Fine art remains a resilient and tangible store of value. Like all worthwhile investments, it rewards those who think in decades, not in seasons.